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THE RED SEA CRISIS: IS IT A CRISIS OR AN OPPORTUNITY FOR TURKEY ? ON THE THESHOLD OF A CRITICAL YEAR

The Red Sea, known as one of the world's most critical waterways, has recently witnessed increased instability due to Israel's attacks on Gaza. Despite the operations led by the United States and the United Kingdom aimed at stopping Houthi attacks in Yemen, desired outcomes have yet to be achieved. Both US warships and vessels allegedly en route to Israel continue to be targeted, contributing to the escalating instability of this route.

This unfavorable situation has led to significant changes in the routes of hundreds of container ships traversing the Suez Canal. Increased distance and risks have resulted in sailors demanding double pay and insurance rates rapidly escalating, prompting shipping companies to distance themselves from this route, which typically handles around 12% of global maritime trade.

According to data from the cargo booking company Freightos, container shipping costs from China to the Mediterranean have increased by over four times since November. These developments deepen the challenges and uncertainties facing international trade and logistics.

The Suez Canal stands out as one of the main arteries for trade from Asia and the Middle East to Europe. Particularly vital for providing inputs to the European industry, such as commodities and energy, recent developments have begun to affect the transportation and trade dynamics on this route. Major components used in Europe's electronics, chemical, automotive, and machinery sectors are largely imported from Asia, increasing the potential for disruptions in the event of canal closures or transportation delays.

The decisions by global automobile manufacturers Volvo and Tesla to halt production in Europe due to issues in their Asian supply chains serve as concrete indicators of these concerns. Similarly, British retailers Tesco and Marks & Spencer have faced difficulties due to cost increases.

The critical geographic location of the Suez Canal underscores the significant impact that any disruption can have on global trade. Therefore, the security and effectiveness of the canal are of paramount importance for the stability of international trade and the economy.

"Opportunities Await Turkey"

While it is unimaginable to think that Turkey would remain unaffected by the crisis unfolding in one of the world's most critical waterways, the Red Sea crisis presents certain opportunities for the country. Despite harboring significant risks, this crisis offers some opportunities for Turkey's foreign trade and logistics sector.

Engin, speaking on the subject, connects these opportunities to two key factors:

"Our country's strategic positioning on major trade routes enables it to play a pivotal role in east-west trade. Moreover, delays in orders from Asia may lead to an influx of purchases towards Turkey."

The revival of the historic Silk Road, with strategic importance, starting from Turkey and extending through the Caucasus, crossing the Caspian Sea to Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, followed by Central Asia and China, is becoming increasingly important day by day.

Positioned against alternatives such as Russia's 'Northern Corridor' and Iran's 'Southern Corridor,' the Central Corridor holds a critical role in the integration of China and Europe. Stretching from Beijing to London, this route is at the center of a trade traffic exceeding $600 billion annually.

The crises in the Red Sea pose uncertainties due to the geopolitical positions of the Northern and Southern corridors linking China and regional countries to the Middle East and Europe. The long-standing conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the crisis in the Red Sea further underscore the strategic importance of the Central Corridor.

Turkey, as the gateway for the Central Corridor, controls all the strategic transit points between Asia and Europe, playing a pivotal role in the project.

 

References

www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/supply-chain/red-sea-shipping

Red Sea shipping attacks pressure China's exporters as delays, costs mount

By Red Sea shipping attacks pressure China's exporters as delays, costs mount | Reuters

 Samuel ShenCasey Hall and Ellen Zhang

wefreight.com

theguardian.com